A new public forecasting model developed by Google and the Harvard Global Health Institute predicts 97 deaths in Wisconsin in the next two weeks and 15,000 new COVID-19 cases. These numbers are based on an SEIR model, which makes predictions based on the time and course of infections moving through susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered stages of the disease. It uses historical data. An extensive user guide explains the model and ways that the data can be accessed by researchers and the public. Note that a Google account is required to access the database.
This model would predict a lower mortality rate in Wisconsin than in the previous 14-day period, but an increase in the infection rate (which does not seem out of line with the current trends).
Locally the model predicts
Dunn County 0 Deaths - 32 new cases - 1 hospitalized
Chippewa County 1 death - 79 new cases - 2 hospitalized
Eau Claire County 1 death - 168 new cases - 3 hospitalized
We will continue to check in with this model over time to see how accurately it predicts the trends of infections and death. The model is very bad news for Milwaukee County in particular, where it predicts 4358 new cases, 26 deaths, and a daily peak of 93 hospitalizations from August 1-14.
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Steve is a member of LION Publishers , the Wisconsin Newspaper Association, the Menomonie Area Chamber of Commerce, and the Local Media Consortium, is active in Health Dunn Right, and is vice-president of the League of Women Voters of the Greater Chippewa Valley.
He has been a computer guy most of his life but has published a political blog, a discussion website, and now Eye On Dunn County.
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