AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Wisconsin's state primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in Wisconsin will select candidates on Tuesday who will compete in some of the fall’s most closely watched races.

Republicans will choose a challenger to run against U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is seeking a third term. There are also primaries in two U.S. House districts that could be important for control of Congress.

Voters are choosing candidates for the Republican-controlled state legislature, which will probably be reshaped in November after Democratic Gov. Tony Evers signed new legislative maps into law earlier this year. Almost two-thirds of the seats in the 99-member Assembly are open.

The Senate contest should be more exciting in November, when it could play a role in deciding control of the chamber. Baldwin is unopposed in the Democratic primary, and Republican businessman Eric Hovde faces nominal opposition. Hovde, a real estate developer who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump this year, has loaned his campaign $13 million — a sum that helped clear the field and allow him to launch attack ads on Baldwin before primary voting even began.

There are two competitive U.S. House primaries of note. The first, the Democratic primary in the western 3rd Congressional District, pits political activist Rebecca Cooke against state Rep. Katrina Shankland. The winner will take on Republican incumbent Derrick van Orden, a staunch ally of Trump who attended the Jan. 6, 2021, rally that preceded the riot at the U.S. Capitol. Cooke finished second in the 2022 Democratic primary. Despite outraising Shankland $2 million to $868,000, Shankland has received more endorsements from the state’s congressional delegation, local leaders and labor organizations.

The second is the Republican primary in the state’s 8th Congressional District, a conservative district in the northeastern corner of the state. Rep. Mike Gallagher vacated the seat in April, so Tuesday’s primary will take place alongside a special primary election for the remainder of Gallagher’s term.

The same three candidates are competing in both primaries: state Sen. André Jacque, former state Senate President Roger Roth and former Green Bay alder Tony Wied. Wied, who leads the money race with $859,000 raised, received Trump’s endorsement before even formally entering the race. Roth has been endorsed by former Gov. Scott Walker and has raised $140,000 less than Wied. Jacque trails in both fundraising and endorsements but is the only one of the three candidates who currently represents the area.

Wisconsin has been among the most competitive states in the last few elections, seeing tiny margins in recent presidential and U.S. Senate races. In a state of almost 6 million people, the last two presidential elections were decided by fewer than 23,000 votes each, and the 2022 Senate race by fewer than 27,000. This year is tracking to be no different.

Finally, there are two constitutional amendments on the ballot that seek to limit the governor’s power to spend federal money that comes without restrictions. One amendment specifies the Legislature can’t delegate its power to decide how money is spent. The second prohibits the governor from spending federal money without legislative approval. They were introduced by Republicans in the state Legislature and would apply to Evers as well as future governors.

Here’s a look at what to expect on primary night:

Primary day

The Wisconsin state primary will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in 59 contested races, including the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, six primaries for U.S. House, plus state Senate, state assembly and two statewide ballot issues. Five of the U.S. House primaries will send candidates onto the November general election, and the sixth is a special primary for 8th Congressional District’s unexpired term.

Who gets to vote

Any registered voter may participate in any party’s primary.

Decision notes

The contested Senate primary is unlikely to be competitive, so the only contentious statewide races are the constitutional amendments. The fault lines for the amendments are expected to hew closely to traditional partisan lines, with Republican state lawmakers backing the two measures and Democrats in opposition. The state’s vote history and political demographics will inform the race-calling process.

In the U.S. House races, the key counties to watch are La Crosse and Eau Claire in the 3rd District and Brown in the 8th District. These counties, which contain the urban areas of La Crosse, Eau Claire and Green Bay, are the largest in their respective districts.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Wisconsin does not have a mandatory recount threshold. Candidates may request and pay for recounts if the margin between the top two candidates is 1 percentage point or less. In races with fewer than 4,000 votes, the margin must be 40 or fewer votes.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of Aug. 1, there were 3,456,732 registered voters in Wisconsin. The state does not register voters by party.

In the April presidential primaries, turnout was about 35% of registered voters. About 33% of votes in that election were cast before primary day.

As of Aug. 7, a total of 216,156 ballots had been cast before election day.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the presidential primaries, the AP first reported results at 9:10 p.m. ET, or 10 minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 3:25 a.m. ET with about 88% of total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 84 days until the November general election.