COVID Update from Dr. Hall 9/16/2021

Heads up / interim update for Dunn County. We have not seen a 7-day average this high (32) since last December. Continued increasing cases, disproportionately driven by those aged 10-19. This is likely due to that age group congregating in school without masks as well as in athletic and other extracurricular activities. If this behaves the way we would expect, we'd next expect to see both continued high cases in this group as it spreads among friends and also an increase in the 30- and 40-year olds as parents/guardians then get infected. From there, it will spread to coworkers, friends, and relatives and the age distribution will become more generalized. That's what we worry most about in terms of hospital capacity, as the older you are, the more likely you are to have severe illness and require hospitalization. Please wear a mask and maintain distance, regardless of vaccination status, whenever you are indoors with people you don't already live with. Unless people's behavior changes significantly, we are likely on track for the terrible shortages of ICU beds currently happening in Florida, Idaho, Montana, and many other places. If I were a betting person, I'd say in about 2-6 weeks. I could be wrong - we could have way more previously infected and therefore at least partially immune folks in our county than we realize (e.g. because they never got tested), and therefore it might not explode, but I wouldn't expect us to be different in that regard from these other states. We could also just get lucky. But in my experience, luck is not a good plan.